A miraculous 'perfect round' occurred at the world championships for the board game 'Crokinole.' What's so amazing about it?
At the world championships of the board game '
Welcome to Crokinole, the greatest game you've never heard of.
https://pudding.cool/2024/10/crokinole/
Crokinole is a simple game of flicking discs with your fingers. Two players each have 12 discs, and take turns flicking them from the edge of a circular board toward the center, and the final position of the disc determines the score. The board is surrounded by three concentric circles, and from the outermost circle, there are areas worth 5 points, 10 points, and 15 points.
In crokinole, there is a rule that if there is an opponent's disc on the board, you must hit it, and if the disc you throw misses, it will be removed from the board. The central area is surrounded by eight pegs, making it difficult to hit, but at the center there is a hole (diameter 3.5 cm) that is just slightly larger than the disc (diameter 3.2 cm), and if you hit it there you will automatically get 20 points (open 20).
The 2024 Crokinole World Championships were held, and it was discovered that a 'perfect round' was achieved in one of the semi-final rounds, where both players achieved an open 20 eight times in a row. You can see how it went in the video below. The time has been specified, so you can press the play button to play the round immediately.
The players are Justin Slater, who won the doubles division in 2024, and Connor Lineman, who won the singles division in 2023. Despite being a professional match among professionals, the movements are quite plain, which is a disappointing scene, but Evangelist Zamora says that a perfect round is a 'great achievement.'
Below is a table summarizing the number of open 20 attempts and success rates of famous players compiled by Mr. Zamora. Each player aims for the open 20 quite a few times, with Mr. Slater's success rate of 75.6% and Mr. Lineman's success rate of 66.0%, which are higher than other players.
Looking at the probability alone, it seems like it would be quite easy to succeed, but it seems like it would be difficult for two players to each succeed eight times.
Below is a table showing the odds of a perfect round occurring between players of a certain level: Perfect rounds are almost impossible between lower level players, even in a Slater vs. Rainman match, the odds are 1 in 277.
| Player | Open 20 success rate | Odds |
| Mr. Slater v. Mr. Lineman | ~70% | 1 in 277 |
| Top competitive players | 65% | 1 in 985 |
| Average competitive players | 55% | 1 in 14,263 |
| Advanced amateur players | 50% | 1 in 65,536 |
| Intermediate amateur players | 45% | 1 in 353,671 |
| Lower level amateur players | 35% | 1 in 19,721,990 |
In addition, it seems that the shot that is most likely to fail in the Open 20 is the first shot. Below is a graph showing the timing and failure rate of the shot.
Incidentally, there is an unofficial record of someone repeatedly aiming for Open 20 and succeeding 64 times in a row.
'In theory, even a slight decline in skill on either side can have a big impact on the odds,' Zamora said. 'A perfect round would be like an NBA player making 20 consecutive free throws in a game; it's not impossible, but it's not common.'
Crokinole sets are available for sale on Amazon.co.jp and other sites.
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