How much progress has weather forecasting made in the past 60 years?

Weather forecasts, which were first provided to ships by the British Met Office in 1859, have greatly improved their accuracy with the introduction of computer numerical modeling in the 1960s. In 2024, another 60 years have passed since then, and Dr. Hannah Ritchie, an expert on food and energy issues, explained how much progress has been made in weather forecasting.

Weather forecasts have become much more accurate; we now need to make them available to everyone - Our World in Data

According to the UK Met Office, the accuracy of four-day forecasts as of 2023 will be comparable to that of one-day forecasts in the 1990s. Also, if you look at the graph showing the difference between 3-day, 5-day, 7-day, and 10-day forecasts and actual weather results, you can see that the accuracy has improved significantly for 5-day and 7-day forecasts. . The three-day forecast shown in blue is said to have an accuracy of about 97%.

It seems that the biggest factor that can be considered as the reason for the improved accuracy is that the data has been improved. Compared to the past, meteorological satellites provide more data and the accuracy of the data has improved, ground-based observation stations cover more areas, and observation equipment has improved accuracy. Dr. Ritchie says this has led to improved forecast accuracy.

Another reason is that the speed of computers that process data has increased. Data obtained from each region is input into a numerical prediction model and processed by a computer, but in the past, the best that could be done was to divide regional data into 90 km squares. However, as of 2024, computers have become able to analyze large amounts of data, so it is now possible to process it even if it is divided into small pieces of data as small as 1.5 km square. For these reasons, weather forecasting has improved significantly compared to the 1960s.

Dr Ritchie said: ``What's important is how we communicate these forecasts. For example, in Scotland you can get a fairly accurate five-day forecast on an app, but who in the world can get this kind of high-quality information? 'There are huge differences in weather forecasts around the world, and there is also a huge gap between the rich and the poor,' he says, calling for the global information gap in weather forecasts to be eliminated.

In particular, in low-income countries, weather forecasts tend to be less accurate and more people are unable to obtain information. Given the high proportion of people in these low-income countries who work in agriculture, which is highly dependent on the weather, Dr. That's what it is.''