Prediction that China will be forced to requisition TSMC if US sanctions continue
IT news site The Register reported that a prominent Chinese economist said, ``If the United States and its allies continue to impose sanctions on China, China will need to occupy Taiwan and gain control of TSMC. There is,' he said, and is considering the future of Taiwan, where half of the world's semiconductor manufacturing capacity gathers, and the semiconductor company TSMC, which is based there.
China 'must seize TSMC' if US imposes sanctions • The Register
Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, gave his opinion on China's response to prolonged sanctions at the U.S.-China forum hosted by the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University in late May 2022. did. Mr. Wenling said at the beginning of his speech that China and the United States needed to ease their hostile relationship, and that the conflict between the two countries was ``a disaster for mankind.''
Wenling then argued that the US was trying to isolate China, citing the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Trans- Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement , saying that the US was trying to create two large 'anti-China trade organisations.' claim. However, the United States has withdrawn from the former, and the latter has stalled at the negotiation stage. Wenling went on to say that China needs to take steps to secure its industrial and supply chains and make strategic preparations to 'address US measures to break and contain the chains.' said.
The Register says this means that if the United States and its allies impose sanctions on China like the ones deployed against Russia, China must 'retake Taiwan' and 'take over TSMC, which originally belonged to China.' interpreted as While this was alarming, Wenling's speech stated that 'China should only take this action in retaliation for threats to its own economic security, and unless China engages in hostilities against There is no reason to think that equivalent sanctions could occur,' The Register wrote.
Wenling also said, ``They are trying to accelerate the transfer to the United States and build six factories in the United States.'' 'This could refer to the US CHIPS Act , which seeks to encourage the construction of semiconductor manufacturing plants in the United States, including funding for a semiconductor manufacturing facility under construction by TSMC in Arizona. I speculated that there is a possibility that
It is reported that the construction of TSMC's new factory is scheduled to be completed by 2024, but due to cultural differences such as salaries that cannot be said to be high and a strict labor system, TSMC has decided to hire workers at the factory. It is also reportedly having trouble securing.
However, The Register said, ``China's attempts to seize Taiwan and TSMC will be futile in any case if the Taiwanese government adopts the scorched-earth policy proposed in the 2021 United States Military Academy paper. It may become something,' he said. The paper argues that Taiwan's best deterrent against a potential Chinese invasion is to introduce a strategy of destroying Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing facilities and depriving China of many semiconductor supplies in the event of an invasion. Since it is suggested that there is, even if China occupies Taiwan, the view that it will not be possible to acquire the resource of semiconductors was shown.
Taiwanese semiconductor companies account for 48% of the global semiconductor foundry market and have 61% of the chip manufacturing capacity using the 16nm process node and below, making them important to both the US and China. Meanwhile, despite China's ambitious target of becoming 70% self-sufficient in semiconductors by 2025, China will produce one-sixth of the chips used by its industry by 2021. However, SMIC, China's largest semiconductor foundry, has been subject to strong sanctions such as
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