The price of coffee beans is expected to double in a year and continue to rise in the future

October 1, 2021 is

International Coffee Day . This anniversary, which began in 2015, was established with the aim of promoting fair trade by informing coffee farmers that the price of coffee beans is too low, but 2021 is different from the usual year. Coffee beans are trading at high prices. Therefore, an expert familiar with the coffee market explained the cause of the rise in the price of coffee beans and the future outlook.

Coffee bean prices have doubled in the past year and may double again – what's going on?

According to Professor Jonathan Maurice of the University of Hertfordshire, England, who has led the project 'The Cappuccino Conquests ' to explore the history of Italian coffee represented by espresso and cappuccino, the price of coffee beans in 2021 will be It has doubled in the past year. Specifically, it soared from $ 1.07 (about 120 yen) per pound (about 454 g) in September 2020 to $ 1.95 (about 220 yen) in September 2021, and in July 2021. Was also seen to hit a high price of $ 2.08 (about 230 yen).


Coffee Prices --45 Year Historical Chart

The price of coffee beans is generally high regardless of the variety, the price of Arabica beans, which is one of the finest coffee beans, is more than 80% in the past year, and the price of cheap Robusta beans is 30 It is said that it has increased by more than%. From this, Professor Maurice said, 'We may be seeing the beginning of a major trend of rising coffee bean prices over the next few years.'

The biggest reason for soaring coffee beans is the environmental problem in Brazil, the world's largest coffee-producing country, which accounts for about 35% of the world's coffee yield. Coffee bean production varies from year to year, but is usually leveled by producer inventory control and price adjustments by the coffee futures market, so prices do not fluctuate significantly.

However, Brazil suffered a water shortage in 2021, which is said to be 'the first time in 100 years ', which reduced the yield of coffee beans, which are the source of coffee beans. In addition, Brazilian authorities predict that 2021 arabica yields will be the lowest in the last 12 years, as coffee trees and fruits have been damaged by cold weather frost damage. increase.

Coffee trees take five years to mature, so it will take some time before the full extent of the damage done to the coffee industry is revealed. 'Brazilian coffee plantations affected by frost damage up to two-thirds of the total,' some experts point out, with coffee beans priced at $ 4 per pound. There is also a view that it will reach.

In fact, coffee prices haven't started to fluctuate in recent years. In the 1930s, the recession caused by the Great Depression combined with the abundant crop of coffee beans left a large amount of coffee beans, and many producers dumped the coffee beans into the sea or used them as fuel for locomotives. On the other hand, coffee prices have tripled by 1977 as a result of a 60% drop in production due to a coffee illness outbreak in 1975.

Based on this experience, the coffee industry is expanding the planting of disease-resistant Robusta varieties with the aim of stabilizing coffee production. Robusta coffee is also cheap, so if you increase the proportion of Robusta coffee used in blended coffee, you can reduce the price of coffee. However, in Vietnam, which is the main production area of Robusta, the economic blockade of measures against the new coronavirus infection continues, so it is not possible to increase production immediately.

In response to this situation, coffee bean brokers are struggling to secure inventories for the time being, coffee beverage makers are wondering how to absorb the soaring prices of raw materials, and ordinary household consumers are wondering how to absorb the soaring prices of raw materials. Professor Maurice concluded that he would face a rise.

in Junk Food, Posted by log1l_ks