The famous Dunning-Kruger effect is not the rule that 'the more incompetent people think they are more capable'

Many people who often check news and blogs about cognitive science and psychology may have seen the term

'Dunning-Kruger effect' taken up. Psychologists explain the true nature of this phenomenon, which has become popular in recent years.

what the Dunning-Kruger effect is and isn't – [citation needed]

According to Tal Yarkoni, a specially appointed associate professor of psychology at the University of Texas at Austin, the Dunning-Kruger effect is the opposite of 'people with poor grades tend to overestimate their abilities compared to others.' 'People with good grades tend to underestimate their abilities more than others.' However, in articles and discourses that mention the Dunning-Kruger effect, mistakenly, 'people who are not good at a certain job think that the job is a vocation' or 'people with lower abilities think that their abilities are higher.' There seems to be something that claims.

The 'common misconceptions' about the Dunning-Kruger effect and the actual Dunning-Kruger effect are briefly summarized in the following articles.

'Only incompetent people overestimate themselves' is wrong, and even the average person actually overestimates himself-GIGAZINE

'I think the reason these false explanations are persuasive is that they implicitly appeal to the just-world hypothesis,' said Yarkoni. It's not really a big deal, 'and it's terribly unpleasant for them to actually face the potential of being better than themselves.'

On top of that, Mr. Yarkoni introduced the following three points that can be used as clues for a deeper understanding of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

◆ 1: Reversion to the mean
Reversion to the mean is a phenomenon in which 'if one trial produces a biased result, the next trial tends to produce a result close to the average.' According to Yarkoni, the most common criticism of the Dunning-Kruger effect is that 'the Dunning-Kruger effect merely reflects reversion to the mean.'

Self-evaluation of grades is influenced not only by the grade itself, but also by various factors such as the person's personality, measurement error, cognitive ability related to one's cognitive ability, that is, metacognitive ability. The self-evaluation of a low person is basically within the range of common sense. This may be the true nature of the overestimation and underestimation of the Dunning-Kruger effect, Yarkoni said.

◆ 2: Self-evaluation bias
A study by David Dunning et al., Who advocated the Dunning-Kruger effect, confirmed the phenomenon that 'the difference between self-evaluation and actual grades of incompetent people is greater than that of competent people.' Cannot be explained by regression to the mean. 'Self-evaluation bias ' makes up for this shortage. Self-evaluation bias is the tendency for people to perceive themselves too positively, and competent people underestimate their performance due to the Dunning-Kruger effect, which is self-evaluation. The degree of underestimation is small because the bias offsets it to some extent. This leads to the difference in self-evaluation between the talented and incompetent people mentioned above.

◆ 3: Error due to the difficulty of the task
Psychologists have conducted a number of follow-up tests to validate Dunning's work. An experiment conducted by Catherine Burson of the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan and others to have students at the University of Chicago perform simple and difficult tasks and investigate the relationship between their grades and self-evaluation (PDF file). Is one of them.

Below is a graph showing the results of Burson et al.'S research. The vertical and horizontal axes represent self-assessment and grades, respectively. For simple tasks indicated by diamonds, 'people with good grades' are more accurate in self-evaluation, while for difficult tasks represented by squares, 'people with poor grades' are more accurate. I am self-evaluating.

Regarding the relationship between this study and the Dunning-Kruger effect, Yarkoni often thinks that 'when the task is difficult, one must have done better than others.' If the task is easy, you will think that you were better than others. As a result, a competent person will accurately self-diagnose when the task is easy, and conversely, an incompetent person will have a task. It means that you can make an accurate self-diagnosis in difficult times, and the tasks that the subjects performed in the Dunning et al. Study were relatively simple. '

On top of that, Yarkoni said, 'When applying the Dunning-Kruger effect to people close to you, it is important to remember that there is a confirmation bias that collects only information that supports one's beliefs. If you believe that you don't have the ability to realize that you're incompetent, it's easy to find evidence of that. In any case, Dunning the bragging stories of a colleague who seems to dislike it again. = If you want to blame the Kruger effect, remember that your colleague is just a disgusting guy and you don't have to assume that you don't understand yourself. '

in Note, Posted by log1l_ks