Prediction that sea level will rise 1.35 meters by 2100

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a forecast in 2019 that 'Earth's sea level will rise 1.1 meters by 2100.' However, Aslak Grinsted, who studies climate science at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen , points out that there is room for improvement in the IPCC's predictions: 'Earth's sea level will rise 1.35 meters by 2100.' We are publishing new forecasts.

OS --The transient sensitivity of sea level rise

Sea level rise could be worse than feared, warn researchers | Environment | The Guardian

Mr. Grinsted's research team explained the sea level observed and estimated in the past and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) published by IPCC in 2013 and the IPCC Special Report (SROCC ) published in 2019. ) ”” To create a graph comparing the sea level predicted. Looking at the graph, it can be seen that the prediction of sea level rise by AR5 / SROCC represented by the blue and red lines is below the solid black line connecting the sea level observed and estimated in the past.

In addition, the research team created an index called ' TLSL ' that indicates 'the magnitude of the effect of temperature rise on sea level rise.' 'Observed value (Observation)', 'predicted value of SROCC', 'predicted value of the AR5,' '

past of the research was to calculate the TLSL from four data of the predicted value of (Expert elicitation)'. As a result, it became clear that the SROCC / AR5 released by the IPCC underestimated the effect of temperature rise on sea level rise.

The research team sent the research results to the IPCC. 'We hope that the new metrics we create will be adopted by the IPCC and become a tool that can be applied to a variety of models,' said

Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, a research team.

In addition, the IPCC recommended in 2018 that 'to stop the rapid and irreversible changes in the climate, the temperature rise must be kept at 1.5 degrees Celsius,' and the deterioration of the global environment is approaching a turning point where it cannot be reversed. I'm ringing a warning bell.

The global environment may have come to the point where it can't be returned anymore --GIGAZINE

in Science, Posted by log1o_hf