Global average detection rate of new coronavirus infection is about 6%, actual infection may exceed tens of millions
`` The number of people infected with the new type of coronavirus (COVID-19), which is widely reported in national and international media, is likely to be much lower than the number of real people, '' said
COVID-19: On average, only 6% of actual infections detected worldwide
The number of people infected with the new coronavirus, which has been rampant since the end of 2019, has exceeded 1 million in early April 2020. It is clear from the counts of Johns Hopkins University .
The number of new coronavirus infected people exceeds 1 million worldwide-gigazine
From the data as of March 17, 2020, Prof. Former calculated the percentage of people who were confirmed to be infected by COVID-19 by testing as the `` detection rate '' from the data as of March 17, 2020, the Italian detection rate Was found to be 3.50%, and the detection rate in Germany was 15.58%. In addition, Spain has 1.68%, France has 2.62%, and the detection rate in European countries other than Germany is less than 5%, so Professor Former has been delayed due to insufficient inspection system for COVID-19 infection in many countries Have pointed out the possibility.
Prof. Former applied this detection rate to the number of confirmed cases as of March 31, 2020, and calculated the estimated number of cases.The estimated number of cases was about 11.85 million in the United States, 5.7 million in Spain, and about 300 in Italy. It turns out that it is highly likely that millions of people have already been infected. The global average detection rate is about 6%, and even if we do not know, there may already be tens of millions of infected people around the world, said Prof. Former, 'The number of people infected with COVID-19 is considerable. Is underestimated. '
It has been pointed out that not only the number of infected people but also the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 are underestimated.
'In the early days of the pandemic, we were able to test people who died at home, but that time has already passed, and we now die at home,' said Mark D. Levine, New York City Council Welfare Commissioner. 'We can't afford to test many people.' 'Only those who were tested before death died, COVID-19 was recorded as the cause of death. This almost certainly underestimates the number of victims of this pandemic. To do that. '
Now only those few who had a test confirmation * before * dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate.This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic. 7 /— Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) April 6, 2020
in Note, Posted by log1i_yk