Feb 04, 2020 16:00:00

Research results that the effect of melting permafrost on the global environment is 'double the previous estimate'

Past research

has shown that `` carbon is released more than expected '' due to the effects of greenhouse gases and methane contained in permafrost, but a new focus on the topography caused by melting of permafrost Studies have shown that the effect is 'more than twice the number previously estimated.'

Arctic permafrost thaw plays greater role in climate change than previously estimated | CU Boulder Today | University of Colorado Boulder
https://www.colorado.edu/today/2020/02/03/arctic-permafrost-thaw-plays-greater-role-climate-change-previously-estimated

Rapid permafrost thaw an unrecognized threat to landscape
http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/rapid-permafrost-thaw-an-unrecognized-threat-to-landscape/article/566468

Climate Models Are Running Red Hot, and Scientists Don't Know Why-Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-03/climate-models-are-running-red-hot-and-scientists-don-t-know-why

`` When permafrost thaws, forests in the northern country sink in lakes in a month, suddenly landslides occur everywhere, and the terrain changes in just a few months, '' he points out, the ecology of the University of Colorado at Boulder. My name is Merritt Turetsky. According to Turetsky, the permafrost in the Arctic, especially where there is abundant ice in the ground, can cause dramatic topographic changes in those areas.

The following is an aerial photo of a bog in the Innoco National Wildlife Refuge , Alaska. You can see the mottled pattern on the ground.

According to Turetsky, these mottled patterns are caused by erosion of the ground and sinking of sediment, caused by the melting of permafrost and rapid temperature changes. Experts call this phenomenon '

thermokarst .'

Regarding the effect of thermokarst on permafrost, Mr. Turretsky said, `` When water freezes and becomes ice, the volume becomes larger than liquid water, so when the ice-rich permafrost thaws, the volume decreases conversely and the surface collapses And landslides. In addition to these dramatic changes in terrain, global warming is further accelerated as forests die due to flooding. '

Many people think of permafrost as a tundra closed to ice, but most of the permafrost is under the

boreal forest . However, northern forests, which are said to occupy one-third of the world's forest area, have been hit by unprecedented fires in recent years. It is believed that

Turetsky, who noticed that the occurrence of thermokarst is rapidly melting permafrost, modeled the amount of carbon release based on the `` rapid permafrost thaw '' brought by thermokarst, and used the conventional `` loosely Melting model of permafrost. ' As a result, it has been found that previous climate models that do not consider thermokarst underestimate the effects of permafrost melting by up to 50%.

'The effects of abrupt thawing are not included in existing climate models. Our findings show that permafrost thawing and its interaction with climate,' said co-author David Lawrence. Up to two times the impact of the US, suggesting that our climate change goals will be even more stringent. '

It has been a frequent occurrence in recent years that new discoveries modify traditional climate change models, such as the results of Turetsky and colleagues. One example is the following graph summarizing the results of simulations conducted by research teams from around the world on the climate sensitivity of how much the temperature will rise if the amount of carbon dioxide doubles before the Industrial Revolution. In order to formulate the Sixth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ICPP) , an average of a total of 27 climate models brought by research teams from around the world resulted in `` Double carbon dioxide? The average value of the temperature rise has increased from about 3 degrees to 3.86 degrees.

Moreover, the above graph does not take into account the effects of thermokarst, which was discovered by Turretsky this time. According to Turetsky, 'This finding tells us that we need to add the effects of permafrost to any climate model. If we take the right action over the next decade, the worst consequences will be We believe it can be avoided, but that will require stronger climate policies and mitigation measures for global warming, 'he said, calling for the need for international action on climate change.