How collective intelligence becomes publicly known is how bias prevents, and how to prevent it from becoming massifolia
Opinion gained from the group approaches the correct answer rather than the answer given by one expertThe existence of "collective intelligence"Although it is known, on the other hand,Through collective psychology people become "libes" and behave foolishlySometimes. Studies have revealed what is going on when it is not a collective intelligence, but how to do it so that it does not become seclusion.
Forget The Wisdom of Crowds; Neurobiologists Reveal The Wisdom Of The Confident | MIT Technology Review
[1406.7578] Wisdom of the Confident: Using Social Interactions to Eliminate the Bias in Wisdom of the Crowds
In 1906 British college Francis Galton visited a "cattle weight weighting contest" where 800 people from a village participate. After the contest ended Mr. Galton gathered participants' expectations and asked for an average, the weight was 1208 pounds (about 548 kg). Surprisingly, this was an error of about 1%, 1198 pounds (543 kg), which is the actual weight of the cow.
This isCollective intelligenceOne example of what is called. The opinion that the group opinion which collected a lot of individual opinions rather than the opinion of one expert is close to the correct answer. However, if you are an Internet user such as an online bulletin board, you know that the idea that "everyone's opinion is correct" is not necessarily wise.
According to recent studies, "When group members do not influence each other" is an important factor when saying "When will collective intelligence not be foolish?" When the group gathers opinions from a wide range of expectations of each individual, it is a wise answer, but when something is biased, that is, when mutual influences or influenced by external factors, collective intelligence It is a foolish thing.
About this point Spain · MadridCajal InstituteGabriel Madirolas and Gonzalo De Polavieja, who study neuroscience at the University, revealed how to avoid collective intelligence.
It is a very simple idea behind their theory. In other words, "There are people of types that are easily affected by people who are confident in their opinions." People in the group who have strong individual thinking are easy to put sensible ideas and confident in their own wisdom, so they tend to ignore collective intelligence so you do not have to worry about the impact, but they are affected Easy type people need to be isolated from groups that have strong individual thoughts.
How do you distinguish "people who have strong individual thoughts"? Mr. Madirolas and Mr. Polavieja established that method from the past research data that several tasks are done in succession. In the research, we first ask the group "ask the length of the border between Switzerland and Italy" as the first task, and show the expectations other groups have issued when the task is completed. And we measure how much the next task will be affected by expectations of other groups.
Mr. Madirolas and Mr. Polavieja created a mathematical model on how much individuals will accept external information based on research data. The conclusion ultimately given by a person is made on the basis of two pieces of information, "own expectation" and "total estimated value initially issued", and concludes depending on which of these two are weighted They are thinking that it will change. For example, people in a group susceptible to bias are more likely to place weight on overall estimates and people who are confident of their expectations will only add a little weight to the overall estimate.
Mr. Madirolas and Mr. Polavieja later adapted the behavior of people to mathematical models and clarified how much their thinking is independent.
By using this method it is possible to divide the group into "people who have strong opinions of individuals" and "people who are vulnerable." In order to give a wise answer, after having made a conclusion by those who have strong opinions of individuals, it is enough to add additional information to increase accuracy.
"To make wise predictions it is not simply a mid-Social dynamicsWe need complicated operation that takes into consideration, "Mr. Madirolas said. Two research results are drawing attention because there is a possibility that it can be used to create a new social news site that derives true "collective intelligence" which is not biased from now.
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