When you predict football · EURO 2016 game winning and losing with artificial intelligence

Doctoral students at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne will be invited from the "UEFA European Championship 2016Web site that predicts victory or defeat of (EURO 2016) by artificial intelligence (AI) "Kickoff.ai"Has been released. I used big data so farFootball's winning and losing is forecast by statistical data analysisThere was a service to do, Kickoff.ai expects to win or lose with a different approach from the past.

Kickoff.ai
http://kickoff.ai/

Artificial intelligence predicts Euro 2016 match results - SWI swissinfo.ch
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/scientific-gamble_artificial-intelligence-predicts-euro-2016-match-results/42215582

Kickoff.ai, which was launched by three students including Victor Christophe and others, incorporated machine learning into data analysis and decided to use two of the other forecasting sites not to use forecasting sites to make more accurate forecasts than traditional statistical data analysis It is said that it has a function.

One is modeling individual players' abilities and performance. In the conventional statistical model, the performance of the entire team was regarded as an important factor, but Mr. Christoph created a statistical model by using the individual ability of each player and performance data of each game for machine learning. The games subject to data collection include not only international matches, but also the club teams that each player belongs to.

The other,Bayes' theoremAppliedBayesian estimationIt is an estimation method. For example, in Germany and Iceland, nearly everyone should expect Germany's victory with World Cup championship experience, but I do not know how many percent probability Germany will win. Iceland is the first country to participate in EURO, and perhaps there is always the possibility of playing with more motivation than usual. It is Bayesian estimation that takes such a statistical model including such uncertain elements, and it is possible to predict that using this will make it possible to win with the probability of "Germany is 60%".

Results of section 1 of the EURO 2016 group stage using this method are published at Kickoff.ai. France and Romania in Group A were forecasted to win with France with a 72% chance.


In Albania vs Switzerland in Group A again, Switzerland has a 58% chance of victory.


Group B's Wales versus Slovakia won Slovakia with a 61% chance. Wales who has a superstar Gareth Bale belonging to Real Madrid, attracting attention as a dark horse of the contest, Kickoff.ai predicted Wales' defeat.


England vs. Russia in another game of group B, England won with a 66% chance. This looks like a reasonable expectation.


In Group C 's Poland and EURO' s first northern Ireland match, Poland won with a 63% chance.


Germany, who won the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil Games, crashed with Ukraine in Group C. Germany's victory probability is 61%.


2 champions EURO's champion · Spain vs. the Czech Republic, Spain's 67% chance of winning.


Group D Turkey versus Croatia expects Croatia to win with a 59% chance.


Group E Irish and Sweden games were expected Sweden to win with a 63% chance.


The FIFA ranked second place with Belgium, but in recent times the battle with Italy who won second place in the last competition is the most noticeable in the first stage of the group stage, and it is difficult to predict which one will win. The difficulty of the prediction seemed to be also with AI, 48% Belgium and 52% Italy was expected to win.


Austria vs. Hungary of Group F, Austria's victory at 56%. However, the probability of winning in Hungary is 44% and it is a half, so I do not know which side will win the result.


Group F final group group F · Portugal versus Iceland, Portugal was expected to win with a 75% chance. 75% is the highest winning probability among the expectations of Group Stage 1.


EURO 2016 has started on June 10, 2016 (Japan time on June 11), and on the first day two games "France versus Romania" "Albania vs. Switzerland" are scheduled. Looking at the game based on the expectation of Kickoff.ai, it seems that the interestingness will be greatly improved.